1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	295293	The Thing: The Boardgame	Current	167	7.93	5.67	2.80
			Estimated	200	6.80	5.63	2.24

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
The Thing is a game that mixes different mechanisms to create an experience that is as faithful as possible to that of the original film. It is a "hidden role" game, in which one player is initially the Thing and the others players are humans. The purpose of the Thing is to infect others, to prevent the survivors from escaping from the base (which can happen three different ways), or to try to escape with them by behaving as a human. In addition to these elements, players also have to manage Outpost 31. On the map are the same rooms as seen in the film, and each of these rooms allows players to perform a different action. Human players have to feed themselves and keep the boiler and the generator on to avoid being in the cold and dark. The Thing will try to sabotage these places to make life difficult for humans...or not, trying to camouflage itself among the humans and infect them when the perfect opportunity presents itself. The goal of the game designers was to bring the same personal emotions and paranoia that the protagonists of the film experienced to the gaming table.

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/295293

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to The Thing: The Boardgame? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to The Thing: The Boardgame. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to The Thing: The Boardgame. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	295293	The Thing: The Boardgame	1.00	5.67	7.93	2.24	167
1	1993	1304	Credo!: the Game of Dueling Dogmas	0.91	5.53	5.79	2.35	233
2	2000	4434	The Poll Game	0.89	5.51	6.26	1.00	46
3	1997	298	Lang lebe der König!	0.89	5.49	5.17	2.00	74
4	2018	257991	Igen?	0.88	5.59	6.50	1.00	203
5	2011	112210	Metro 2033	0.87	5.51	5.77	2.65	323
6	2000	22815	Situação Limite	0.86	5.50	5.95	1.00	32
7	1986	3549	Superpower	0.86	5.42	4.35	2.10	134
8	1989	6383	Life Style	0.85	5.49	5.48	1.13	191
9	2009	69632	Greenrock Village: Tatort – Hotel	0.85	5.52	6.23	2.00	64
10	1984	1748	A Question of Scruples	0.81	5.22	4.68	1.37	771
11	1986	196	Kremlin	0.79	6.38	6.96	2.84	2,861
12	2014	144412	Power Play: Schemes & Skulduggery	0.79	5.53	7.12	2.00	39
13	2009	57239	Locale	0.78	5.49	4.98	1.00	40
14	2016	203661	Bad People	0.77	5.49	5.36	1.00	93
15	2006	24843	Graenaland	0.77	5.83	6.71	3.01	669
16	2015	185393	El Macanudo	0.77	5.51	6.01	1.25	35
17	2008	35761	Sylla	0.77	6.17	6.73	3.11	2,081
18	2011	103261	Awkward Family Photos	0.76	5.43	4.72	1.12	168
19	2015	172164	Dohdles!	0.76	5.58	6.70	2.00	171
20	2013	144632	City Council	0.76	5.62	6.11	3.00	447
21	2012	121041	Pluckin' Pairs	0.76	5.84	6.75	1.08	668
22	2004	9801	Ostrakon	0.75	5.53	5.86	1.43	188
23	2004	10960	Swärje	0.74	5.49	5.48	1.56	93
24	1998	3515	Men Are from Mars, Women Are from Venus	0.74	5.39	3.90	1.38	130
25	2012	88513	Chicken Caesar	0.74	5.78	6.67	2.78	572

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to The Thing: The Boardgame while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	295293	The Thing: The Boardgame	5.67	1.00	5.67	7.93	2.24	167
1	2019	245655	The King's Dilemma	5.15	0.73	7.05	7.89	2.29	3,535
2	1986	196	Kremlin	5.06	0.79	6.38	6.96	2.84	2,861
3	1993	1304	Credo!: the Game of Dueling Dogmas	5.04	0.91	5.53	5.79	2.35	233
4	2000	4434	The Poll Game	4.91	0.89	5.51	6.26	1.00	46
5	2018	257991	Igen?	4.91	0.88	5.59	6.50	1.00	203
6	2011	96913	Lancaster	4.86	0.69	7.02	7.41	2.99	7,003
7	1997	298	Lang lebe der König!	4.86	0.89	5.49	5.17	2.00	74
8	2011	112210	Metro 2033	4.78	0.87	5.51	5.77	2.65	323
9	2000	22815	Situação Limite	4.73	0.86	5.50	5.95	1.00	32
10	2008	35761	Sylla	4.72	0.77	6.17	6.73	3.11	2,081
11	1989	6383	Life Style	4.67	0.85	5.49	5.48	1.13	191
12	2009	69632	Greenrock Village: Tatort – Hotel	4.67	0.85	5.52	6.23	2.00	64
13	1986	3549	Superpower	4.64	0.86	5.42	4.35	2.10	134
14	2006	24843	Graenaland	4.48	0.77	5.83	6.71	3.01	669
15	2012	121041	Pluckin' Pairs	4.41	0.76	5.84	6.75	1.08	668
16	2014	144412	Power Play: Schemes & Skulduggery	4.35	0.79	5.53	7.12	2.00	39
17	2009	57239	Locale	4.30	0.78	5.49	4.98	1.00	40
18	2012	88513	Chicken Caesar	4.27	0.74	5.78	6.67	2.78	572
19	2013	144632	City Council	4.26	0.76	5.62	6.11	3.00	447
20	2015	172164	Dohdles!	4.24	0.76	5.58	6.70	2.00	171
21	2016	203661	Bad People	4.24	0.77	5.49	5.36	1.00	93
22	2015	185393	El Macanudo	4.22	0.77	5.51	6.01	1.25	35
23	1984	1748	A Question of Scruples	4.21	0.81	5.22	4.68	1.37	771
24	2006	23686	Gift Trap	4.18	0.70	6.01	6.40	1.24	2,566
25	2004	9801	Ostrakon	4.14	0.75	5.53	5.86	1.43	188

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	295293	The Thing: The Boardgame	Pendragon Game Studio	Giuseppe Cicero	Davide Corsi	Movies / TV / Radio theme	Admin: Better Description Needed!	Hidden Roles
			ADC Blackfire Entertainment	Andrea Crespi	Riccardo Crosa		Creatures: Aliens / Extraterrestrials	Semi-Cooperative Game
			Delta Vision Publishing				Movies: Horror Movies	Voting
			Galakta				Movies: The Thing
			Matagot

Individual Game Analysis